2 minute read
The Fed opts against raising rates, but doesn't rule out another hike this year.
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
4 minute read
With Growth a crowded and expensive trade, might Value offer better value?
1 minute read
Weekly Cash Commentary
Weekly Bond Commentary
6 minute read
School spending slows while inflation rises.
8 minute read
Moderating core inflation doesn't ease consumer concerns about everyday prices.
Maintaining cautiously optimistic stance as macro concerns fade.
Data point in different directions.
7 minute read
Lots of reasons to expect all-important spending to hold up.
But can the rise in workers' negotiating power since Covid 19 continue?
Unloved sectors may be setting up nicely.
Softer job growth could prevent the Fed from hiking again.
Fed Chair Powell addressed inflation targets and market expectations in Jackson Hole.
Contrarian approaches may offer a missing piece to investor portfolios.
Let's hope so because massive and growing deficits are spooking markets.
5 minute read
Powell uses Jackson Hole keynote to reiterate Fed’s vigilance to lower inflation.
They've stabilized somewhat but still face pressures.
The rapidly developing peninsular country has 3 factors going for it.
And has a lot of firepower left.
9 minute read
Buyable entry point emerging for stocks.
The evidence so far suggests not a lot.
The marriage of AI and quantum computers could take things to unimaginable levels.
Electric vehicles face bumps in the road to reach their lofty goals.
3 minute read
Rhetorically speaking, China may have long Covid.
For equity investors, peak pessimism presents potential opportunities.
Payroll growth slows, but wages stay hot.
Senior Portfolio Manager R.J. Gallo can think of seven reasons.
Its potential, for good and for bad, is just starting to be appreciated.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Fed may remain vigilant.
Might this rally be due for some consolidation?
With the impact of its tightening still not apparent, the Fed opted for another modest rate hike.
Upgrading year-end S&P target to 5,000 as rocky landing scenario nears end.
Recession odds have fallen.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
Consensus has taken a beating but is still standing.
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Waiting for the program to go bust isn’t an option.
It’s Christmas in July for equities. Will the Fed be a Scrooge?
Why we think Japan could finally outperform after three lost decades.
Defensive positioning didn’t hurt the first half. In the second half, it may help.
Weekly Bond Commentary.
But strong enough for the Fed to hike yet again.
The first half was a consensus killer; will the second half be one too?
Higher-for-longer rates can be beneficial for dividend strategies.
The markets have finally listened to hawkish Fed speak.
Will tech stocks cool after torrid first-half surge?
Don’t fight the Fed. Don’t fight the tape either.
As ‘Rocky Landing’ enters final phases, equity market remains upwardly biased.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
The consumer has a lot more firepower than many appreciate.
Dichotomy between nominal and core inflation declines keeps Fed engaged.
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.
The Fed skipped a rate hike but suggested more could come.
The current U.S. immigration system is an inadequate solution to population decline.
The pain trade is up. The late '90s' parallels are eerie.
Our southern neighbor is firing on all cylinders.
A hot headline increase of 339,000 jobs in May but colder details put Fed in wait-and-see mode.
A very narrow market trading at extremes makes for discomfort.
Following the official suspension of the federal debt limit, expect the U.S. Treasury to issue a massive amount of securities.
A strong consumer and robust labor market aren't so fun for the Fed.
Inconsistent economic reports cloud the path of U.S. growth.
The bump in April retail sales belies a deceleration of consumer spending.
Might stocks offering 'growth at reasonable prices' provide refuge?
And the case for bond returns is getting stronger.
Investors grow impatient waiting for the big downturn that may never fully come.
The Fed may be done hiking, but its subsequent pause could last awhile.
That could determine if above- or below-average historical returns are likely.
Barring the emergence of more bullish data, we expect the Fed to pause rate hikes this year.
Opportunities as varied as countries that fall under the emerging markets umbrella.
Looming risks make it hard to assess where markets go next.
The Fed raised rates again, but hinted it soon might be time to take a breather.
Weeky Cash Commentary
What's behind the substantial rise in assets of money market vehicles?
GDP growth slows, but inflation remains elevated
With volatile markets ahead, stocks enter a period of limbo.
With so many mixed messages, no wonder investors are confused.
43 minute listen
Stubborn inflation, strong consumption data and a robust labor market are clouding the economy’s path.
Is the debate much ado about nothing or a slow-moving train wreck?
Slower growth and stubborn inflation argue for patience and selectivity.
We see GDP growth slowing over the balance of 2023.
Perils lurk but so does the potential for upside surprises.
Volatile markets can offer opportunities.
Fed rate hikes finally may be starting to bite.
Mounting clues that the economy has reached a turning point.
Maintaining cautiously constructive stance amid confusing outlook.
The Federal Reserve’s dual function as regulator and policy-setter has been on display.
Should investors buy the dips or sell the rips as we approach earnings season?
For as long as the economy is stronger for longer.
Will the Federal Reserve pivot from its fight against inflation?
Not all regional banks are caught up in the turmoil.
Fed Chair Powell made the case for another quarter-point hike amid the banking turmoil.
Simmering post-pandemic issues are raising the temperature.
Rapid rate increases exposing issues that were hidden when rates were low.
Silicon Valley Bank's 'Perfect Storm' unlikely to deter Fed.
But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.
The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.
The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.
12 minute read
Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.
As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.
U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.
Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.
The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.
As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.
The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.
The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.
It starts with China. Other forces also are at work.
Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.
Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.
Audiences pondered this market, and Linda's chauffeur, in her travels this week.
Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.
And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.
We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.
The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.
Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.
The market is dismissing the Fed's determination to defeat inflation.
The fact that inflation is falling puts the Federal Reserve in a delicate position.
It seems the Federal Reserve hikes in 2022 have not been fully priced into the economy.
Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.
Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?
An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.
Whether the Federal Reserve goes with a 25 or 50 basis-point hike next week might not impact the terminal rate.
The economy continues to flash contradictory signs about how it is responding to the Fed’s tightening campaign.
Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.
Rancor aside, with ‘extraordinary measures’ the debate over the U.S. debt limit has time to be resolved.
In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.
Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.
2022 was all about rates; this year is more nuanced.
2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.
Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year.
Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.
Three things to watch in 2023.
A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.
Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.
But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.
Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.
An earnings and Fed Catch-22 could keep S&P range-bound for coming months.
Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.
The Fed pushes back against market expectations.
A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?
45 minute listen
Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession.
The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.
The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.
You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?
FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.
Municipal securities have much to offer if the economy slows.
10 minute read
2023 outlook to us looks like more of the same as "rocky landing" proceeds.
But it's a lot more expensive this year.
Not until the stimulus stockpile is gone. But what then?
Perhaps. But the focus should be on quality.
Mix shift in retail spending points to slower economic growth.
Many reasons for a rally but don't expect it to last.
Wide corporate bond spreads are enticing, but the time to add to credit sectors hasn't come yet.
Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.
Maybe everyone, including markets, could use a little boring.
Yes, but recent actions have raised the risk.
Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.
And it doesn't look like the Fed is planning one anytime soon.
Fed Chair Powell indicates the pace of hikes is not as crucial as arriving at the right place.
Remaining defensive as 2023 consensus on earnings and Fed remains too optimistic.
Money market yields have returned to pre-GFC levels.
Positive Q3 GDP growth provides a respite.
Consider the big picture when assessing markets ... and life.
Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.
And they may get it as midterms seem to be trending the GOP's way.
As they bide their time, investors should focus on strengthening portfolios.
Investors bracing for a challenging third-quarter earnings season.
This market has been in a bad place for some time.
With peak yields in sight, better times may be too.
Everything we thought might go wrong at start of the year, has.
Whether or not this bear market survives October, investors will face an unnerving environment.
The sun's not the only thing that's hot in Hawaii these days.
Or will social policy issues keep it close?
Fed projections are less useful these days.
Disasters all over have markets on edge.
Monthly Cash Commentary
Fed Chair Powell reiterates hawkish Jackson Hole message.
Investors seeking shelter from stormy markets.