But banking issues brought to the fore this week are discomforting.
The Fed’s response to the collapse of SVB puts pressure on the Treasury and the FOMC decision next week.
Weakening confidence should give Fed the slowdown it wanted.
Weekly Cash Commentary
Weekly Bond Commentary
The beats (hawkish Fed, strong jobs, surprise bank failure) keep coming.
The still hot labor market all but ensures the Federal Reserve stays aggressive.
Standard models and frameworks are less useful in rocky landings.
As Linda discusses inflationary '70s, a guest wonders if the Mister is with her.
U.S. equity and fixed-income markets are pointing in different directions.
Investors have begrudgingly capitulated to a still-hawkish Fed.
The tragic Russia/Ukraine war could keep energy prices and inflation elevated.
As long as Americans keep spending, higher for longer may rule the day.
The global economic picture is setting up to look a lot like last year's.
The only good news is both seem much closer to a better future.
It starts with China. Other forces also are at work.
Combined with persistent inflation, Fed likely to remain vigilant.
Inflation, consumer strength move bonds closer to the Fed. Stocks still keeping some distance.
Audiences pondered this market, and Linda's chauffeur, in her travels this week.
Fundamentals suggest stocks could correct in the coming months before rallying into year-end.
And that's creating challenges for fixed-income positioning.
We're probably not yet at a "just right" stage for stocks, especially of the growth variety.
The surge of hires in January likely keeps the Fed in hawk mode.
Bulls looking past the crosscurrents … for now.
The market is dismissing the Fed's determination to defeat inflation.
The fact that inflation is falling puts the Federal Reserve in a delicate position.
It seems the Federal Reserve hikes in 2022 have not been fully priced into the economy.
Decent headline gross domestic product growth belies weakness in several core components.
Can the equity rally survive deteriorating fundamentals, a tight-as-a-drum job market and inverted yield curve?
An improved high-yield asset class might not flash the same signs for reentry as in past economic downturns.
Whether the Federal Reserve goes with a 25 or 50 basis-point hike next week might not impact the terminal rate.
The economy continues to flash contradictory signs about how it is responding to the Fed’s tightening campaign.
Persistent inflation and the Fed’s efforts to fight it will lead to a mild recession, but investors can find opportunities across equity, fixed income and cash.
Rancor aside, with ‘extraordinary measures’ the debate over the U.S. debt limit has time to be resolved.
In volatile markets, stock picking and picking your spots may offer investors the best options for returns.
Inflation cooling but labor market remains healthy.
2022 was all about rates; this year is more nuanced.
2022 was tough. 2023 will have its challenges but be perched for opportunities.
Two market indicators suggest equities could enjoy a better year.
Modestly more constructive on stocks as rocky landing approaches final phase.
Three things to watch in 2023.
A flush consumer could make for a slow-cession instead of a recession.
Opportunities can be found in small-cap markets.
But the ISM services decline was a bigger story.
Looks like 3 decades of disinflation are coming to an end.
An earnings and Fed Catch-22 could keep S&P range-bound for coming months.
Consumers are showing restraint amid still-high inflation.
The Fed pushes back against market expectations.
A quick visit lifted spirits. Will Santa do the same for the markets?
Silvia Dall’Angelo, Donald Ellenberger and Steve Chiavarone discuss global inflation and whether the markets have already priced in a recession.
The U.S. economy is slowing across the board.
The Fed can't like the strong job growth and surge in wages in November.
You have to ask: is he here to hurt or help?
FOMC voters must stick to the data to make their next decision on rates.
Municipal securities have much to offer if the economy slows.
2023 outlook to us looks like more of the same as "rocky landing" proceeds.
But it's a lot more expensive this year.
Not until the stimulus stockpile is gone. But what then?
Perhaps. But the focus should be on quality.
Mix shift in retail spending points to slower economic growth.
Many reasons for a rally but don't expect it to last.
Wide corporate bond spreads are enticing, but the time to add to credit sectors hasn't come yet.
Republicans fail to achieve expected midterm election gains.
Maybe everyone, including markets, could use a little boring.
Yes, but recent actions have raised the risk.
Solid week of employment data keeps Fed aggressive.
And it doesn't look like the Fed is planning one anytime soon.
Fed Chair Powell indicates the pace of hikes is not as crucial as arriving at the right place.
Remaining defensive as 2023 consensus on earnings and Fed remains too optimistic.
Money market yields have returned to pre-GFC levels.
Positive Q3 GDP growth provides a respite.
Consider the big picture when assessing markets ... and life.
Hawkish Fed prompts us to lower our GDP growth estimates.
And they may get it as midterms seem to be trending the GOP's way.
As they bide their time, investors should focus on strengthening portfolios.
Investors bracing for a challenging third-quarter earnings season.
This market has been in a bad place for some time.
With peak yields in sight, better times may be too.
Everything we thought might go wrong at start of the year, has.
Whether or not this bear market survives October, investors will face an unnerving environment.
The sun's not the only thing that's hot in Hawaii these days.
Fed projections are less useful these days.
Or will social policy issues keep it close?
Disasters all over have markets on edge.
Monthly Cash Commentary
Fed Chair Powell reiterates hawkish Jackson Hole message.
Investors seeking shelter from stormy markets.
Control results weak, but school shopping solid.
How much corporate earnings fall could determine where the market bottoms.
Amid this week's chaos, good vibes in visits to Atlanta and Nashville.
Higher, sooner and longer for these hawkish policymakers.
Queen Elizabeth II was a constant in a world of turmoil.
There are reasons to think it might.
Perhaps Wall Street can take a cue from Main Street and just chill.
Relatively healthy jobs report keeps Fed hiking rates.
Global investment decisions often start at the top.
Cash has become a compelling asset class.
Fed Chair uses Jackson Hole keynote to reset investor expectations.
'70s stagflation made many people grumpy, which is why no one wants a repeat.
And with it, the rally in stocks is likely ending, too.
Bears and bulls facing off on what the Fed may do.
Their answers could play a big role in midterm elections.
A lot is riding on a Fed pivot.
What will the White House do with student debt?
Hot July jobs report keeps Fed on warpath against inflation.
Continuing rally hopes face structural inflation headwinds.
Seeking opportunities amid volatility.
Next month will mark a half-year of hikes, time enough to evaluate their impact.
But high inflation and Fed tightening are taking us closer.
Uncertainties casting doubt on the rally.
The Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% for the second month in a row.
Battery technology, charging stations, safety and costs among key issues.
It's inflation versus recession with the Fed in the starring role.
Rising recession risk favors defensive dividend stocks, cash and Treasuries.
Hot inflation, stagflation concerns, recession fears and a hawkish Fed.
Investment and life lessons from Stephen Auth.
After years of playing defense, it's time to think offense.
Inflation and recession face off as the market weighs which is worse.
Fed on track for a 0.75% hike in late July.
Markets might be setting up for '70s' era modest returns.
And the storm might not be over.
Could it be setting investors up for a glorious winter?
The Fed’s willingness to shift on volatile data makes rate expectations difficult.
Selling equities into rally as outlook for 'Rocky Landing' grows more likely.
Our international team sees opportunity in China, Asia.
Fed policy shift should cool the housing market.
Unfortunately for workers, wage inflation at heart of Fed tightening.
Nuclear could see a resurgence as world turns to cleaner energy.
Markets are adjusting to the new Fed regime.
The market’s late shift in expectations gave the Fed the opportunity for a 0.75% hike.
Nearing level to leg back in but staying defensive as Fed attempts 'rocky landing.'
Consumer Price Index surges to a new 40-year high.
Helpful qualities in a market that's distributing so much pain.
Fed should give investors no reason to stray from short-duration, value strategies.
Contradictory data offers something for optimists and pessimists.
Fed remains on track for more half-point hikes.
Up, but until there is more clarity, maybe not much.
The Fed must rely on the data and not its policy framework to curb inflation.
Consumers powered the recovery and markets. Will they hold up?
Stagflation and recession risks growing.
A near-term bottom may be in sight.
No recession on the immediate horizon.
Consumers may hold the key to whether it's a recession or "softish" landing.
It will (it always has). Growth investors need to be ready.
The U.S. should ramp up energy production.
Cash tops shopping list but other possibilities starting to look promising.
Our bias is to add to risk. We’re just not there … yet.
War-driven food crisis could spawn destabilizing uprisings all over.
The news on earnings and the economy is good. Markets don't care.
Is the labor market slowing?
With a 50 basis-point hike, the Fed hopes to stick it to inflation.
The Fed rate cycle and the SEC money fund reform process are ready to begin in earnest.
Unrelenting demand presents challenges as Fed seeks to unwind price pressures.
Fed still on track for a half-point hike.
More rate hikes would favor cash, floating-rate securities and value stocks.
The Fed's abundant messaging has the market doing its work for it.
Consumers and businesses don't seem to mind too much ... yet.
Washington policies helped to create runaway inflation.
5 reasons growth investors can take heart in 2022.
Russia’s invasion, higher energy costs, soaring inflation, hawkish Fed…
Inflation that moderates but stays elevated can be a problem.
Bonds wrestle with pricing Fed, war and inflation outcomes.
The only question for investors: at what cost?
A host of negative factors could end the recent rally.
Today's challenges play into this asset class' strengths.
Year-end S&P forecasts for 2022 and 2023 lowered to 4,800 and 5,100.
Fed on pace for half-point hike in May.
Russia-Ukraine conflict taking its toll.
R.J. Gallo, Susan Hill and Phil Orlando weigh in on the latest Fed action and inflation expectations.
The Treasury yield curve isn't matching the futures market’s view of rate hikes.
Still cautiously favoring equities as unpredictable Putin plays under his own rules.
The U.S. must pursue a dual-track energy policy.
Greenspan supported U.S. markets. Now it's President Xi Jinping's turn in China.
It may feel similar, but the differences are many.
Market risks stay skewed to upside but inflation and possible policy errors lurk.