3 minute read
A potential 'chair pro tempore' and the criminal probe dominated the Fed's policy-setting meeting.
2 minute read
Weekly Bond Commentary
1 minute read
Weekly Cash Commentary
8 minute read
If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.
Rise in oil prices might goose inflation just as the US labor market appears to be weakening.
Inflation and private credit concerns offset accelerating US growth.
Yields have descended since the peak of 2023 but may settle at more competitive levels than before that spike.
10 minute read
US bond markets are relatively stable in the face of potential disruption.
US labor market was strong across the board in January.
6 minute read
Equity rally broadens out amid positive January Barometer.
5 minute read
Yield curve dynamics may be in flux once Warsh is in office.
From a subpoena to a nomination, the Fed dominated the financial headlines.
Policy fog now begins to lift after this week's rate-cut pause.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell stuck to the script at the FOMC meeting yesterday.
With attractive yields and solid credit, demand for corporate bonds continues to be strong.
We think GDP growth could reach 3.3% in 2026.
If the future keeps bond investors awake at night, the present is complicated too.
But midterm elections and Fed leadership transition could spark volatility.
Data-dependent bond markets shrugged off uncertainty to end a strong year.
The federal government shutdown is not the same as it reaching the debt limit.
Trump’s pressure on the Fed notwithstanding, the money markets have much to celebrate.
4 minute read
Fed holds rates, and Chair Powell sidesteps President Trump's pressure.
Facing criticism and uncertainty, Fed Chair Powell makes things worse by dismissing the SEP.
With inflation under control, the Fed should cut rates twice later this year.
The question: Has Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating impacted money market funds?
7 minute read
Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.
Week Cash Commentary
Solid US economic data also helps as equities reverse their April freefall.
For now, Trump is 'just' insulting Fed Chair Powell, as the Treasury market has pushed back.
Import surge pushes first-quarter GDP into the red.
Labor market remains solid, despite tariff uncertainty.
Trump's attacks make it harder for the Fed Chair to steer the economy through the storm.
Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.
Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?
The stability of the money markets is shining amid the greater financial turbulence.
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
Total US money fund assets push past $7 trillion.
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
Fed stays in wait-and-see mode, but makes major changes to its forecast
'Uncertainty' dominated the FOMC meeting this week.