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Weekly Cash Commentary
2 minute read
Weekly Bond Commentary
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Facing criticism and uncertainty, Fed Chair Powell makes things worse by dismissing the SEP.
With inflation under control, the Fed should cut rates twice later this year.
4 minute read
The question: Has Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating impacted money market funds?
7 minute read
Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.
Week Cash Commentary
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Solid US economic data also helps as equities reverse their April freefall.
For now, Trump is 'just' insulting Fed Chair Powell, as the Treasury market has pushed back.
Import surge pushes first-quarter GDP into the red.
Labor market remains solid, despite tariff uncertainty.
Trump's attacks make it harder for the Fed Chair to steer the economy through the storm.
Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.
Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?
The stability of the money markets is shining amid the greater financial turbulence.
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
Total US money fund assets push past $7 trillion.
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
Fed stays in wait-and-see mode, but makes major changes to its forecast
'Uncertainty' dominated the FOMC meeting this week.
6 minute read
Bessent preaches short-term pain for long-term gains.
Maybe the Fed’s not done cutting rates this year, after all.
Market intervention should subside under the new SEC leadership.
Financial markets roiled by developments in D.C.
On the back of solid holiday retail sales, January's were dismal.
Weekkly Bond Commentary
The rally broadens.
New year starts with hiring and wage growth.
For liquidity investors, the Fed decision to pause cuts matters more than Powell and Trump locking horns.
Revisions are possible due to inventory and trade data.
Peak policy uncertainty.
Stocks playing catch-up with bond market sell-off.
Employment strength should keep Fed on the sidelines for some time.
Three things to watch in 2025.
As the Fed slows its pace, shoppers are increasing theirs.
Labor market rebounds from October weather and strikes.
Money market assets have reached a new mark.
Confidence high and stocks higher as election gives way to holidays.
Will rising post-election confidence boost holiday sales?
Resurgent inflation and stronger growth render the Fed’s rate-cutting plans uncertain.
Republicans closing in on 'Red Trifecta.'
Powell rebuffed questions about the Fed's future, and his own, but his nebulous comments give the FOMC latitude.
Investors, voters and the Fed will likely look past the October jobs report distorted by hurricanes and strikes.
Noisy data and election uncertainty might slow Fed easing.
Will Fed’s data dependency generate market volatility?
The bullish stock market seems to be overlooking deteriorating fundamentals.
Robust September jobs report supports view the economy is headed for rotation, not recession.
Interest rates have fallen, but in the liquidity space, the sky has not.
Weakest Back-to-School spending in 15 years.
Federal Reserve ‘recalibrates’ monetary policy.
The data did not support the large cut, but the Fed did not want to seem behind the curve.
The Fed’s half-point rate cut shows it still thinks the economy can avoid a recession.
On the cusp of cutting rates, the only unknowns are the pace and magnitude.
Fed on track to begin cutting rates later this month.
Presidential elections typically gather steam after Labor Day.
Markets are yet again pricing in too many Fed cuts.
Powell adopts dovish tone in his Jackson Hole keynote
Will politicians finally address the ballooning U.S. debt and deficit?
Weak jobs report should prompt Fed to cut rates in September.
The FOMC is back to considering both the labor market and inflation equally as it weighs cuts.
Combination could chill the Fed longer than the consensus believes.
The U.S. economy is slowing and inflation declining, but when will the Fed cut rates?
8 minute read
Headline payroll strength hides weaker details.
Three things to watch in 2024.
A surprisingly strong economy could mean higher for longer, longer
At the end of the day, it'll be a gift for competitors.
The new regulations for money funds don't change their value proposition.
Might a summer storm lie ahead for investors?
MBS issued by U.S. housing agencies could have advantages for investors if the economy slows.
Could energy buck conventional wisdom?
9 minute read
If it is, bubbles can last a long time.