8 minute read
If the Iran war does not derail it, the US economy should remain strong.
1 minute read
Rise in oil prices might goose inflation just as the US labor market appears to be weakening.
US labor market was strong across the board in January.
6 minute read
Equity rally broadens out amid positive January Barometer.
Policy fog now begins to lift after this week's rate-cut pause.
We think GDP growth could reach 3.3% in 2026.
5 minute read
But midterm elections and Fed leadership transition could spark volatility.
With inflation under control, the Fed should cut rates twice later this year.
7 minute read
Equity and fixed-income investors are responding differently to tariff and fiscal policy uncertainty.
Solid US economic data also helps as equities reverse their April freefall.
3 minute read
For now, Trump is 'just' insulting Fed Chair Powell, as the Treasury market has pushed back.
Import surge pushes first-quarter GDP into the red.
Labor market remains solid, despite tariff uncertainty.
Trump's policy reversals buoy markets.
Should investors focus on solid hard data or weak soft data?
Calculated well before the tariff announcement, the US added a robust 228,000 jobs in March.
4 minute read
Concern about Trump’s tariffs and sticky inflation seem to be deflating consumer confidence.
Fed stays in wait-and-see mode, but makes major changes to its forecast